Berlin (dpa) – The Union’s downward trend is consolidating: four weeks before the federal elections, another poll considers the SPD with chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz as the most powerful force.
In the weekly Sunday trend of the Insa polling institute for “Bild am Sonntag”, the Social Democrats gain two percentage points. With 24%, they are now well ahead of the Union, which is only 21% (minus 1). Their candidate for chancellor Armin Laschet (CDU) is under even more pressure ahead of the first three-way televised battle with the best candidates of the SPD and the Greens.
The value displayed in the Sunday trend is the lowest that Insa has ever measured for the CDU / CSU. The Greens remain at 17%, the FDP at 13%. The AfD (11%) and the Left (6%) each lose one point.
CSU leader Markus Söder urgently warned the Union of a loss of power after the September 26 elections. “We must do everything possible to prevent a historic shift to the left in Germany,” he said of “Bild am Sonntag”. “The danger has never been greater for a left alliance to take power. It is now important that the Union is always ahead of the SPD and the Greens.
On this Sunday evening, the three candidates for chancellor of the Union, the SPD and the Greens have their first exchange of blows directly on television. For nearly two hours (from 8:10 p.m. to 10 p.m.), Laschet, Scholz and the president of the Greens Annalena Baerbock were interviewed live by RTL and ntv in Berlin.
Before Insa, other surveys saw the SPD before the Union. At the YouGov polling institute, the Social Democrats were last at 24%, the CDU / CSU at 22%. The Forsa trend barometer for RTL and n-tv also saw the Union a few days ago at 22%, the SPD at 23%. In Friday’s ZDF political barometer, the SPD and the Union were tied at 22% each.
Even with the polls of chancellor candidates, things are looking more and more gloomy for the Union: according to Insa, only 10% would vote for Laschet by direct suffrage (-2). The environmental candidate Baerbock wins a point and arrives at 14%. Scholz is still in the lead with 31 percent (-3). But it is also clear that election polls only reflect opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.
In view of the dramatic values for the Union, the CDU and CSU are counting on Laschet to turn the tide with a combative appearance on the television show. The Greens, on the other hand, hope Baerbock will again be more attacking. After the announcement of Baerbock’s candidacy for chancellor, they had sometimes even overtaken the CDU / CSU with polls of up to 28%, but fell back again in the weeks and months that followed.
The dispute between the three candidates for chancellor is a first. So far there have only been televised duels in Germany – between the chancellor and a challenger. In the last duel in 2017, incumbent Angela Merkel (CDU) and SPD main candidate Martin Schulz clashed. This time everything is different: in September ARD and ZDF will follow first, then TV channels ProSieben, Sat.1 and Kabeleins with further trials.
Experts are convinced: The three-way battles that millions of people will watch live on screen can still change voters’ moods a lot. In addition, postal voting has already started. The timing of the exchange of blows is all the more important. “As the number of postal voters increases significantly, it is potentially possible to vote immediately after mailing. This increases the effect of the Trielle ”, explains political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte of the University of Duisburg-Essen.