There has long been a discussion in Germany as to whether the incidence is sufficient as a parameter for corona measurements. Now a medical professional suggests a modified formula.
Ludwigshafen (dpa) – When discussing a new formula for corona requirements, the head of the Covid-19 registry in Rhineland-Palatinate spoke in favor of a vaccine-corrected incidence over seven days.
“The description of the infection situation by the parameters of the incidence over seven days must be assessed differently today than a year ago, when no part of the population was vaccinated,” said Anselm Gitt of the Institute for Heart Attack Research Ludwigshafen of the German News Agency.
Sticking to the incidence underestimated the current dangerous infection situation, Gitt warned. “These figures are based on the entire population since the start of the pandemic and completely ignore the fact that half of them have now been vaccinated.”
If you correct this, you get a realistic image, but also a threatening one. “On average, the incidence over seven days for the whole of Germany would then be more than a factor of two higher. The seven-day vaccine-corrected incidence is currently well over 100 in 11 of the 16 federal states and even 277 in North Rhine-Westphalia. “
The board of trustees of the Ludwigshafen Heart Attack Research Foundation Institute called for a discussion on whether this vaccine-corrected incidence should be used for the situational assessment of l infection and the resulting political decisions. “With the total number of patients who need to be treated in intensive care units and normal wards due to corona infection, this could contribute to a significantly better assessment of the development of the pandemic,” Gitt said.
“The current discussion of completely dropping the incidence of new infections over seven days and recording a seven-day incidence of hospitalizations as a surrogate does not make sense on its own.” The increase in hospital admissions is lagging behind the increase in new infections. “If only inpatient admissions were considered, significant time would be lost on infection containment measures,” Gitt said. He had calculated the seven-day vaccine-corrected incidence model with mathematician Alexander Neumer.