Berlin (dpa) – The next Bundestag, which will be elected this Sunday, could have more than 900 members according to the calculations of electoral researcher Robert Vehrkamp.
Based on the latest ZDF “Politbarometer” before Thursday’s elections, the Bertelsmann Foundation researcher calculated a range of 672 to 912 terms. In an average scenario, this is 810 MP. The Bundestag currently has 709 members, making it bigger than ever.
More than two-thirds of Germans already think it’s too big. In a poll carried out by the opinion polling institute YouGov on behalf of the German news agency, 71% said there were too many MPs. 11% said they thought the number of seats was right. Only 3% thought that the Bundestag should be enlarged.
The Wahlen research group determined the following polls for the “Politbarometer”: SPD 25%, CDU / CSU 23, Greens 16.5, FDP 11, AfD 10 and Left 6%.
The three scenarios differed only in the different assumptions regarding the division of the first and second votes, said Vehrkamp of the German news agency in Berlin. This dividing behavior is very difficult to predict.
According to Vehrkamp, the intermediate scenario with 810 MPs is by no means extreme. According to his account, this assumes that almost half of the voters who vote for the FDP with the second vote give their first vote to the Union, and that at the same time, as usual, more than 80 percent of the voters of the Union do so. with both voices. In the 2013 federal election, 63 percent of all FDP voters split in favor of the Union.
The standard size of the Bundestag is 598 deputies – 299 deputies directly elected from constituencies with the first vote and 299 deputies recruited via state lists. However, this number is increasing due to surplus and compensation mandates.
Surplus mandates occur when a party receives more direct mandates than it is entitled to based on the second result of the vote. The parties are authorized to keep these excess mandates. In order for the majority ratios determined by the result of the second vote to be effectively reflected in the Bundestag, the other parties receive compensatory mandates for this.
In the 2017 Bundestag elections there were 46 overhangs and 65 compensatory mandates, four years earlier there were only 4 overhangs and 29 compensatory mandates. The overhang mandates were distributed as follows in 2017: CDU 36, CSU 7, SPD 3. Instead, there were these compensatory mandates: SPD 19, FDP 15, AfD 11, Linke 10, Verts 10. This n It’s that since the 2013 federal election that all overhang mandates have been fully offset by compensatory mandates.