The CDU and CSU together reach 20% in the latest Insa poll three weeks before the German Bundestag elections – an all-time low. The SPD is 5 percentage points ahead of the Union.
Berlin (dpa) – Three weeks before the federal elections, the SPD and chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz increased their lead over the Union in an Insa poll.
The Social Democrats gain in the “Sunday trend” for “Bild am Sonntag” a percentage point compared to the previous week and are now at 25 percent. The CDU and CSU with their candidate for chancellor Armin Laschet together reach 20%, a point lower than a week ago – and, according to the newspaper, an all-time low.
In third place, the Greens candidate for chancellor Annalena Baerbock lost one point and now stands at 16% – followed by the FDP, which remains unchanged at 13%. According to pollsters from the Insa Institute, the AfD with 12% and the Left with 7% can gain one point each. The other parties combined represent 7% (minus 1).
Several surveys by other opinion research institutes had recently seen the SPD increase – and in some cases well before the CDU / CSU. The ZDF “Politbarometer” released by the Election Research Group on Friday also sees the Social Democrats at 25 percent, while the Union is at 22 percent.
Election polls are usually always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining ties between parties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.
There are major differences in the evaluation of the various theoretical coalition options. According to the survey, a coalition of the SPD, the Union and the FDP estimates that 39% are good for Germany and 44% bad. Another grand coalition would be good for 35%, but bad for 48%. Out of an alleged traffic light alliance made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP, 29% say it would be good for the country – 53% think it is bad. Red-green-red found 27 percent good, 55 percent bad. A Jamaican coalition made up of the Union, the Greens and the FDP is the lowest rated: 23% rate this variant as good, 58% as bad.