Berlin (dpa) – With three good weeks before the federal elections, the SPD has again made strong progress according to the ZDF “Politbarometer” and is clearly ahead of the Union.
If the vote were to take place next Sunday, the CDU / CSU would remain at 22%, its lowest figure so far in this election research group survey. The SPD could grow three percentage points from the previous week and would be the strongest force for the first time since September 2002 with 25 percent in this projection. The Greens, who have been very strong for a long time and even in the lead for a short time, would lose three points and only reach 17%.
The AfD could still count on 11%. The FDP could gain one point at eleven percent, the left also at 7 percent. The other parties combined would be seven percent (minus two), including no party that would reach at least three percent.
This would give a very small majority to a coalition led by the SPD with the Union. Under the leadership of the SPD, an alliance with the Greens and the FDP or with the Greens and the Left would suffice. Union leadership would only be possible in an alliance with the Greens and the FDP.
The left-wing alliance more popular than a three-party alliance led by the unions
Since the polls are down, the Union warns against a possible left alliance after the federal elections. Almost two-thirds of respondents to the “Politbarometer” (63%) assume that the SPD – with a corresponding majority – would try to form a government with the Greens and the left after the federal elections. 30% doubt it.
However, according to another survey, a left alliance is more popular with citizens than a tripartite alliance led by the Union. As a survey by the YouGov polling institute showed, one in five people would fully or fully support a coalition made up of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party. Almost as many would agree to an alliance made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, but only just over one in eight would agree to a coalition made up of the Union, the Greens and the FDP. At the same time, such a Jamaican coalition is rejected by more citizens than the red-green-red or the traffic light with the SPD, the Greens and the FDP.
According to the survey, a red-green coalition would be even more popular than the SPD-led alliances with the Greens and the Left, or the Greens and the FDP. A renewed grand coalition of the Union and the SPD also has more supporters and fewer opponents. However, none of them currently have the majority. More recently, the Union in particular had pushed for a discussion on a left alliance and asked the SPD and the Greens to exclude a coalition with the Left Party. Both parties have avoided this so far, but have moved away from leftist positions.
Wouldn’t it be better not to specify?
According to the “Politbarometer”, however, 50 percent of SPD supporters are against red-green-red, 33 percent would like such a coalition. Only 36% support the fact that the SPD should exclude a government with left-wing participation before the elections. 57 percent believe that the SPD should not engage in this issue, including 63 percent of SPD supporters.
On question K, the candidate for chancellor of the SPD, Olaf Scholz, has widened his lead, according to the “Politbarometer”. His trend of positive assessment continued both in terms of candidate preference and suitability for chancellor. 53 percent (plus four) would like to have SPD candidate Olaf Scholz as chancellor, Union candidate Armin Laschet 18 percent (plus one) and green candidate Annalena Baerbock 14 percent (minus two). While SPD supporters are almost united behind Scholz (92%), the support of CDU / CSU supporters in Laschet (53) and the Greens in Baerbock (66) is more cautious.
After 65% a week ago, Scholz now has 70% confidence in the office (not suitable: 25%). For 25 percent unchanged, Laschet can be chancellor (not: 70) and for 23 percent (plus one) Baerbock (not: 71). The rest, which was 100 percent missing, was uncertain in each case.
In principle, election polls only reflect opinion at the time of the survey and are not a prognosis for the outcome of the election. You are also always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, declining ties between parties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.