Berlin (dpa) – The SPD won the federal elections after the result of the counting of all constituencies. For the first time in several years, it rose again to 25.7%, as evidenced by the Federal Returning Officer’s website overnight.
The CDU / CSU, on the other hand, fell after 16 years in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government with 24.1% to an all-time high. The Greens had the best result in their history with 14.8% and were the third strongest force. The FDP improved to 11.5%. The AfD slipped from third to fifth place with 10.3%. The left has fallen to 4.9%, but can still stay in the Bundestag thanks to three direct terms.
A complicated government formation is thus emerging. The only conceivable bipartite alliance would be a new grand coalition, which neither the SPD nor the Union wants. This is why it is likely that there will be a three-way alliance in the federal government for the first time since the 1950s. In terms of calculations, several constellations are possible.
Scholz claims the Chancellery for himself
Scholz sees a clear electoral mandate for the SPD. Many voters had made it clear that they wanted a “change of government” and that the next chancellor should be Olaf Scholz. It is likely that Scholz is aiming for a traffic light alliance with the Greens and the FDP, as has been the case in Rhineland-Palatinate since 2016.
FDP leader Christian Lindner has so far expressed strong reservations against such a coalition within the federal government, preferring the union as a partner. Election night, however, highlighted the similarities with the Greens. “And that’s why there can be no more in Germany. Now is the time for a fresh start, ”he said.
Laschet also wants to provide the government
But Laschet also wants to try to forge a government despite the massive losses. “A voice for the Union is a voice against a left-wing federal government. And that is why we will do everything in our power to form a federal government under the leadership of the Union, ”he said. “Germany now needs a future coalition which will modernize our country.”
CDU Secretary General Paul Ziemiak spoke of a “future coalition” made up of the Union, the Greens and the FDP. CSU leader Markus Söder also spoke out in favor of an “alliance of reason” under the leadership of Laschet: “We strongly believe in the idea of a Jamaican alliance”.
Such a Jamaican alliance, as it rules in Schleswig-Holstein, failed in the federal government in 2017 because of the FDP. This time the Greens are more likely to slow down. The differences between the Greens and the FDP are particularly important when it comes to financial and climate policy.
It is not excluded that Laschet or Scholz try to ally with the Greens and the FDP when they came second. It would not be a novelty. Willy Brandt became chancellor of a social-liberal coalition in 1969, although the SPD only came in second. It was the same with Helmut Schmidt in 1976 and 1980.
Result for the Union a blow
For the Union, the outcome at the end of the Merkel era is definitely a blow – not only to the CDU, but also to the CSU, whose party leader Markus Söder was beaten in a power struggle with Laschet. for the candidacy to the chancellor in the spring. After counting Bavaria’s 46 constituencies, the CSU only reached 31.7%, according to the website of the state returning officer. This means a decrease of about seven percentage points from the 2017 federal election (38.8%). The CSU thus fell to its worst Bundestag election result since 1949.
The Union has clearly carried out investigations over long periods of time. Due to the rise of the Greens, a black-green alliance has long been considered probable. In the election campaign, however, Laschet made mistakes, including his laughter in the disaster area of North Rhine-Westphalia, while Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke of the flood victims.
It was a similar experience for the Green Chancellor candidate Baerbock. After her party temporarily led the polls in the spring, it lost significantly in the summer when Baerbock had to admit, among other things, resume errors and extra income that was reported too late. Allegations of plagiarism in connection with her book also bothered her.
Baerbock disappointed with the choice
On election night Baerbock was disappointed. “We wanted more,” she admitted. It didn’t work, also because of my own mistakes. “This country needs a climate government,” Baerbock said. “We now continue to fight for this with all of you.” Their co-chairman, Robert Habeck, left all options open to his party in possible coalition negotiations. The Greens have “a good chance of being strong in the next government,” Habeck said. “We want to rule.”
The surge of the AfD, which first moved to the Bundestag in 2017 and became the third party at the time, seems to have stopped for the time being. The co-leader of the AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Alice Weidel, described her party’s performance as “very solid”.
The new Bundestag will probably be bigger than ever. In the last legislature, it had already reached the record size of 709 deputies, the target being 598 seats. The Union and the SPD had only decided on a small reform of the electoral law in 2020. A major reform is only planned for the elections of 2025. A commission must make proposals in this direction by mid-year. 2023.